Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 18 2023 00:43:18

ACUS01 KWNS 180043
SWODY1
SPC AC 180041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATER AND OUTER BANKS VICINITY LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...

....SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms posing at least some risk for locally strong
wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado, may impact areas near, but mostly
offshore of, the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity around or
shortly after midnight EDT.

....01Z Update...

....Southern Mid Atlantic Coast...
Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the Appalachians, models
continue to indicate that a surface low may begin to form and deepen
across parts of the North Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal
plain late this evening through 12Z Monday.  Within the developing
warm sector of this feature, modest strengthening of lower/mid-level
wind fields may contribute to enlarging clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs, in the presence of modest boundary-layer
destabilization.  It appears that this environment might become
conducive to supercells with occasionally strengthening low-level
mesocyclones, potentially supportive of locally damaging wind gusts
and/or tornadoes.  While it still appears that this will probably
remain largely offshore, at least coastal areas near the North
Carolina Outer Banks vicinity may be impacted by the 05-07Z time
frame.

...Kerr.. 09/18/2023

$$

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