Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 17 2023 17:26:17 ACUS02 KWNS 171726 SWODY2 SPC AC 171724 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... A severe thunderstorm or two will be possible for the Texas Panhandle during the late afternoon and early evening on Monday. ....Synopsis... As an upper trough over the eastern U.S. shifts northeastward into New England, and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, flow aloft across the U.S. in the wake of this trough will trend toward a lower amplitude, more quasi-zonal regime. At the surface, a frontal low off the Mid-Atlantic Coast region during the day is forecast to shift/develop northward toward eastern Maine/the Canadian Maritimes, in tandem with the northeastward advance of the upper system. Elsewhere, a cold front is forecast to shift across the Pacific Northwest/northern Intermountain Region as northern-stream upper troughing traverses the Canadian Rockies. Otherwise, aside from weak lee troughing over the central Plains/southern High Plains, surface high pressure will largely prevail across a majority of the country. ....Texas Panhandle... Daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer (mid to upper 50s dewpoints) will support afternoon destabilization from western Kansas southwestward across the Texas Panhandle, where 500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE development is anticipated by late afternoon. While not overly strong, deep-layer flow in the 20 kt range through the lower and middle troposphere, veering with height from southerly to northwesterly through mid levels, will result in sufficient shear for some organization of updrafts. Additionally, with a deep mixed layer (inverted-V soundings) that will evolve through the afternoon, some support for evaporatively aided gusty winds is apparent. Storm coverage is forecast to be very isolated due to lack of a pronounced focus for ascent. Still, any storm which develops, and can become sustained with the aid of modest background shear, would have the potential for producing wind gusts that could locally reach or exceed severe levels. Marginal hail may also be possible with one or two of the strongest storms. Any risk which evolves through late afternoon, would gradually diminish due to nocturnal effects through mid evening. ...Goss.. 09/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .