Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 17 2023 16:08:16

ACUS01 KWNS 171608
SWODY1
SPC AC 171606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US COASTAL PLAIN...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and a tornado or two will be possible across
portions of the southeast Atlantic coastal plain this afternoon into
early tonight.

....Southeast Coastal Plain...
A large and deepening upper trough is present today over much of the
eastern US, with its associated surface cold front moving into the
southeast states.  Along and ahead of the front, ample low level
moisture and moderate CAPE values are present from southeast NC into
parts of SC/GA and FL.  Visible satellite imagery shows considerable
clouds across much of this region, which will limit daytime heating
to the 70s and 80s.  However, greater heating will be associated
with a region of more clear skies over southern GA and eventually
over southeast SC.  Several morning CAM solutions focus on this area
for robust afternoon thunderstorms.  Forecast soundings in this area
show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, a lack of persistent
mid-level dry air, and winds below 3km mainly less than 20kt.  This
suggests a risk of locally gusty winds, but only a marginal threat
of severe gusts.  A brief tornado or two is also possible early this
evening over northeast SC and southeast NC where low-level shear
will be slightly stronger.  Therefore will maintain ongoing MRGL
risk category.

...Hart/Wendt.. 09/17/2023

$$

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