Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 17 2023 08:57:16

ACUS48 KWNS 170857
SWOD48
SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models continue to show the development of a
large-scale trough/mid-level low over the West during the early half
of the extended period.  Appreciable model variability exists on
Wednesday (day 4) on the evolution of a mid-level trough over the
lower MS Valley/Gulf Coast.  As the western U.S. upper disturbance
pivots eastward into the Four Corners (Friday), the risk for severe
will increase over portions of the central-southern Great Plains
near and east of a dryline.  Will defer including a highlighted
severe threat for Friday (day 6) over KS/OK/TX for the time being,
until more model consistency is apparent and confidence in this
scenario increases.

...Smith.. 09/17/2023

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