Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 17 2023 06:00:14 ACUS02 KWNS 170600 SWODY2 SPC AC 170558 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible for the Texas Panhandle during the late afternoon and early evening on Monday. ....Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the East will shift eastward into New England and the Atlantic waters east of the Mid-Atlantic states. Low-amplitude mid-level flow will mostly characterize the prevailing pattern over the Lower 48 states. A mid-level shortwave trough near the WA/Canadian border will parallel the international border and move into northern MT by late Monday night. A surface low will develop north-northeast from the coastal waters of the Delmarva into southern Maine. A trailing cold front arcing south from the low will push through portions of the FL Peninsula. A lee trough will develop during the day across the High Plains and potentially focus a few thunderstorms during the late afternoon into the early evening over parts of the southern High Plains and potentially over the central Great Plains during the evening/overnight. ....TX Panhandle... Southerly low-level flow will strengthen during the day across the southern High Plains as the initial stage of moisture return commences. Per model data, the TX Panhandle region will serve as the north extension of higher quality moisture that is located over the lower Rio Grande Valley. Strong heating will result in warm temperatures by mid-late afternoon with well-mixed mid 50s dewpoints plausible near the I-27 corridor. Although large-scale forcing will be weak, local erosion of the cap is possible. If the cap is breached and a storm or two develops, steep low-level lapse rates and an elongated hodograph will support some storm organization. Localized large hail and severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms. This activity will likely dissipate by mid evening as the boundary layer cools and convective inhibition increases. ....Central Great Plains... A few thunderstorms may develop in association with the lee trough on the northern part of the moisture plume over western KS and areas northeast into central/eastern NE. Sparse thunderstorm coverage is currently forecast which casts uncertainty whether an isolated risk for strong/severe storms could materialize. It seems the greater chance for storm development will occur as a LLJ/warm-air advection strengthens during the evening into the overnight. Confidence remains too low to introduce low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Smith.. 09/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .