Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 17 2023 04:52:44 ACUS01 KWNS 170452 SWODY1 SPC AC 170451 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Atlantic coastal plain today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. ....Synopsis... In the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee, now accelerating east-northeast of northern New England, and preceding short wave troughs within the mid-latitude westerlies, higher moisture content air has generally become confined to the Gulf Coast vicinity. As another significant short wave trough turns east of the middle/lower Mississippi Valley through the Appalachians today, the low-level cooling/drying is forecast to overspread the Gulf Coast into the northern Gulf of Mexico, while the warmer and more moist air advects north-northeastward ahead of surface troughing developing to the lee of the Appalachians. Within this troughing, models indicate that surface cyclogenesis may initiate, primarily this evening through tonight near the coastal Carolinas. ....South Atlantic Coast... Through this period, models generally suggest that surface cyclogenesis will remain fairly weak, with the most substantive strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric flow (to around 30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) late this evening into early Monday. Within the developing warm sector, this may include enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs conducive to the development of low-level mesocyclones with the potential to produce tornadoes. However, while it currently appears at least possible that this could overspread portions of the Carolina coastal plain, model output continues to indicate that this environment will generally remain offshore of coastal areas. Otherwise, moderate boundary-layer CAPE (in excess of 1000 J/kg) may develop during the day, inland across parts of the eastern Georgia into South Carolina coastal plain. Beneath 30-40 kt southwesterly flow around 500 mb, deep-layer shear might contribute to an environment conducive to organizing convective development with potential to produce damaging wing gusts, supported by forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching short wave trough. ...Kerr/Bentley.. 09/17/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .