Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 17 2023 00:55:43

ACUS01 KWNS 170055
SWODY1
SPC AC 170054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.

....01Z Update...

....Lower Missouri Valley vicinity...
Widely scattered strong thunderstorms are still ongoing in an arcing
band curving from east of Salina KS into areas near/southwest of the
Missouri Ozarks.  This is roughly focused within the left exit
region of a digging cyclonic mid-level jet streak (50+ kt around 500
mb), near/in advance of the mid-level cold core of the associated
short wave trough.  Models suggest that this perturbation will
gradually begin to pivot eastward across the lower Missouri/middle
Mississippi Valley overnight.  However, despite the continuing
progression of the associated cooling aloft, ongoing boundary-layer
cooling is resulting in diminishing destabilization potential.  Due
to the stabilizing trends, the risk for severe hail and wind already
appears in the process of becoming increasingly negligible (i.e.
less than 5 percent).

...Kerr.. 09/17/2023

$$

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