Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 16 2023 19:47:39 ACUS01 KWNS 161947 SWODY1 SPC AC 161945 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms remain possible across a portion of southeastern Texas, and will continue over parts of the central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening. ....Discussion... Few changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time, as current and anticipated evolution of convection remains in line with prior expectations. The primary changes in this outlook will trimming the MRGL risk area and removal of hail probability in southeastern Texas, in line with current convection evolution and motion, and also a slight northwestward expansion of MRGL risk over the southeastern Minnesota vicinity, where convection continues to develop just to the west of the existing outlook area. Otherwise, prior reasoning remains valid, across the CONUS. ...Goss.. 09/16/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023/ ....TX... A long-lived MCS continues to track slowly southeastward across central TX. These storms produced occasional strong-severe wind gusts earlier this morning near/northwest of SJT. However, more recent trends have shown a general decreasing trend. At least remnants of the MCS are expected to persist through the day and track southeastward toward the coast. However, given the relatively weak winds aloft and lack of a more focused forcing mechanism, it is likely that the overall severe threat will remain rather marginal. Locally strong-damaging wind gusts will be the main risk. ....Central Plains into Mid MS Valley... A relatively strong upper trough and associated surface cold front is moving southeastward across parts of MN/WI/IA. By mid/late afternoon, this front will extend from near the KS/NE border into southern IA and southern WI. Scattered thunderstorm development will occur along/ahead of the front, in a moderately unstable air mass. Cool mid-level temperatures (-16 to -18C at 500mb) coupled with dewpoints in the 60s may result in sufficiently favorable thermodynamics for hail in the stronger updrafts. Steep low-level lapse rates could also promote gusty winds. However, the overall severe threat appears rather marginal at this time. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .