Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 16 2023 16:03:08

ACUS01 KWNS 161603
SWODY1
SPC AC 161601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL TEXAS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible across a portion of
central to southeast Texas, and also over parts of the central
Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon and evening.

....TX...
A long-lived MCS continues to track slowly southeastward across
central TX.  These storms produced occasional strong-severe wind
gusts earlier this morning near/northwest of SJT.  However, more
recent trends have shown a general decreasing trend.  At least
remnants of the MCS are expected to persist through the day and
track southeastward toward the coast.  However, given the relatively
weak winds aloft and lack of a more focused forcing mechanism, it is
likely that the overall severe threat will remain rather marginal.
Locally strong-damaging wind gusts will be the main risk.

....Central Plains into Mid MS Valley...
A relatively strong upper trough and associated surface cold front
is moving southeastward across parts of MN/WI/IA.  By mid/late
afternoon, this front will extend from near the KS/NE border into
southern IA and southern WI.  Scattered thunderstorm development
will occur along/ahead of the front, in a moderately unstable air
mass.  Cool mid-level temperatures (-16 to -18C at 500mb) coupled
with dewpoints in the 60s may result in sufficiently favorable
thermodynamics for hail in the stronger updrafts.  Steep low-level
lapse rates could also promote gusty winds.  However, the overall
severe threat appears rather marginal at this time.

...Hart/Wendt.. 09/16/2023

$$

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