Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2157
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 16 2023 13:52:09

ACUS11 KWNS 161352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161351=20
TXZ000-161515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Areas affected...central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685...

Valid 161351Z - 161515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 685
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe gusts may persist another 1-2
hours before thunderstorms weaken. A downstream watch is not
currently expected.

DISCUSSION...An overall weakening trend has been observed over the
past 30-60 minutes with a bowing cluster of storms moving across the
Concho Valley/central TX. Much of the trailing convection to the
south/southwest of the apex has decreased in intensity
substantially. However, a 44 kt gust was reported at SJT about an
hour ago, and a gust to 64 kt was reported at the West Texas Mesonet
site at Doole about 30 minutes ago.=20

The overall expectation is that convection will continue to weaken
in a modestly unstable airmass characterized by weak vertical shear,
poor lapse rates, and decreasing warm advection as storms continue
to shift east/southeast. A couple of strong/severe gusts near the
apex may persist in the short term, but a downstream watch is not
currently expected.

...Leitman.. 09/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6Bv5Eam4E4BgCfbwyZQ7t_8gb-hgkQxb92L74bFx3lBrHfMl9NhETS3a-tyD8RAT8DZztTcKf=
0EGslb2AO9FQS8EVIg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31809954 31779830 31149773 30679779 30349811 30289896
            30569958 30930000 31209999 31519986 31809954=20


=3D =3D =3D
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