Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 16 2023 12:27:07 AWUS01 KWNH 161227 FFGMPD TXZ000-161800- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1077 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 826 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2023 Areas affected...Permian Basin through the Edwards Plateau of TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 161225Z - 161800Z Summary...An organized and efficient complex of thunderstorms will continue this morning across portions of Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau. Rainfall rates upwards of 2-2.5"/hr are expected to maintain a flash flood threat through this morning. Discussion...Regional radar mosaic imagery depicts an increasingly organized complex of thunderstorms atop portions of the Permian Basin into the Edwards Plateau, along a southward diving cold front/composite outflow. Over the last several hours, rainfall efficiency of this activity has increased likely in response to 1) a developing MCV on the northern end of the line, 2) persistent low-level moisture transport into the complex, and 3) enhanced forcing for ascent by the RRQ of a developing jet streak over the Red River. Accordingly, MRMS and single source estimates from surrounding radars showed rainfall rates of 1.5-2.5"/hr with this activity. These prolific rates were leading to notable elevated CREST responses and an earlier LSR of flash flooding along I-20. As this activity migrates southeast, the downstream thermodynamic environment will continue to support efficient warm rainfall production and continue the chance for 2-2.5"/hr rates, with mesoanalysis estimates showing 1000 J/KG MUCAPE, 1.5-1.6" PWATS, and warm cloud depths of 10-11,000 feet. Vertical shear for organized convection could also be enhanced as the MCV becomes increasingly defined. While the forward propagation of the line could temper the overall flash flood threat somewhat over the western half of the MPD area, areas south of DYX ahead of the MCV will likely see reduced forward speeds of storms, and thus a relatively greater risk of immediate term flash flooding. While model guidance has handled the timing and placement of convection poorly, there is a general signal for rainfall totals of 2-4" through 18z as these storms continue. Even within forward propagating segments, relatively low 1 HR FFGs of 1-1.5" could be breached fairly easily given expected rates. Thus, expect the flash flooding threat to continue through this morning, especially in light of recent heavy rainfall atop the region. Asherman ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-7_0J8m8v_bgIAB5c5FL4ptzrioiL8OSLrNRkuUQXVJsfcjbvympNwm9lBBxGC8ML76q= n8g-3oS4_JDKplma76ioWZA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 32620094 32609920 31609806 30469810 30209900=20 30580103 31230226 32230210=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .