Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2155
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 16 2023 10:39:09

ACUS11 KWNS 161039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161038=20
TXZ000-161145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 161038Z - 161145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for severe gusts will persist through this morning,
and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued shortly.

DISCUSSION...A small complex of thunderstorms, occasionally
exhibiting a bowing structure, was located between Snyder and
Andrews in West TX at 1030z. Intermittent severe gusts, including
one significant severe gust, have been reported at West Texas
Mesonet sites since 09z. This complex of storms should persist over
the next few hours within a MUCAPE environment of 500 to locally
1000 J/kg, an established cold pool, and modest 850 mb warm air
advection. Latest high-resolution guidance suggests this complex
should continue to product isolated strong/severe gusts through
mid-late morning.  Support for this potential is evidenced in recent
composite reflectivity animation showing the evolving warm advection
wing extending east/southeast of the bowing segment.=20

In the short term, a watch will be needed to cover this threat.  In
addition, introduction of severe probabilities will be included in
the upcoming 13z Day 1 Convective Outlook for this area.

...Bunting/Grams.. 09/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_TafiIUFWqSDnTw-5L_Jjwp2H-Hv7naPCS5Z2B4n8PFOa4h3Fo6X6zylWD6X3w0tEHak85960=
5ajllL00AA_y20eNzo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   32150142 32830054 32530004 31689971 31319983 31230052
            31190167 31860181 32150142=20


=3D =3D =3D
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