Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2154
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 16 2023 06:17:06

ACUS11 KWNS 160617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160616=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-160745-

Mesoscale Discussion 2154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast NM and West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684...

Valid 160616Z - 160745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely persist beyond the
the scheduled 07z expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 684.  A
local watch extension in time and area may be needed.

DISCUSSION...One notable severe thunderstorm was located over Lea
County of southeast NM at 0610z, while other episodically
strong/severe storms were located farther east into the Texas South
Plains. These storms were moving southeast in advance of a cold
front, and within an environment characterized by 35-40 kts of
effective shear and MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg.  With greater
instability and more supportive mid-level lapse rates across the NM
portion of the watch, storms over Lea County, NM and adjacent areas
of West Texas are most likely to remain severe over the next few
hours.  This scenario is supported by recent hi-res guidance, and an
extension in time and area may be needed for WW 684 prior to
expiration at 07z.

Storms farther east across the West Texas portion of the watch will
remain within an environment of weaker instability, but may still
briefly intensify to strong/near severe levels.

...Bunting/Grams.. 09/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9OtHDbLpklMbk4cOo2QyUUJMXWKWRDG7gM3RPtEi3YbPxF2Y7n8ojNwHa4h5j0j-6oQle_slH=
08vsePDUjB0YEUWn24$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32130181 32060324 32330404 33120444 33750443 34230339
            34400245 34460078 34280058 33470053 33120150 32130181=20


=3D =3D =3D
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