Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 16 2023 05:40:07

ACUS01 KWNS 160540
SWODY1
SPC AC 160538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 16 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with strong winds and hail, will be
possible from parts of northeast Kansas east-northeastward into
northwest Illinois late this afternoon and early this evening.

....Central Plains/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move southeastward across the Upper
Midwest and central Plains today, as an associated cold front
advances southeastward across the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi
Valleys. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and
lower 60s F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by
afternoon from southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa and northern
Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms
will develop near the front, and southeastward across a somewhat
moist airmass. RAP forecast soundings along and south of the front
from near Kansas City east-northeastward to the Quad Cities by late
afternoon have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-3 km
shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to
peak near 8 C/km. This environment could support multicells with
wind-damage potential. Hail will also be possible with the stronger
cells in the late afternoon and early evening. However, the
relatively modest shear is expected to keep any severe threat
marginal across the region.

...Broyles/Bentley.. 09/16/2023

$$

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