Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Sep 16 2023 00:54:07 ACUS01 KWNS 160054 SWODY1 SPC AC 160052 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. ....Southern High Plains... Latest water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted upper-level trough over the Four Corners. A plume of mid-level moisture is located from northern New Mexico and Colorado extending east-northeastward into the central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the southern edge of this plume from northern New Mexico into the far western Texas Panhandle. At the surface, a moist airmass is located over most of Texas, with the western edge of this airmass in far eastern New Mexico. The latest RAP has MLCAPE generally around 1000 J/kg across parts of west Texas and eastern New Mexico, with MLCAPE as great as 2500 J/kg over west Texas. Short-term model forecasts, including the HRRR, suggest that an MCS will gradually develop this evening. The MCS is forecast to move south-southeastward through far eastern New Mexico and west Texas, reaching southwest Texas later tonight. The 00Z sounding at Midland, which is near the center of the Slight Risk, has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This, combined with low to mid-level lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.0 C/km, should be favorable for supercells with isolated large hail. The potential for large hail may continue into much of the overnight period, as the MCS moves south-southeastward into the stronger instability over west Texas. Supercells, along with the stronger multicell clusters, may also be associated with marginally severe gusts. Further southeast across parts of southwest and south-central Texas, moderate to strong instability is currently analyzed by the RAP. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern edge of the stronger instability, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although deep-layer shear is on the marginal side for supercells, the thermodynamic environment may support a threat for marginally severe gusts and hail. ...Broyles.. 09/16/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .