Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 15 2023 19:46:04

ACUS01 KWNS 151945
SWODY1
SPC AC 151944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and a brief
tornado or two are most likely across the southern High Plains into
tonight.

....20z Update...

The main change with the 20z update is the removal of the Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk across portions of MN/WI. Weak heating due to
persistent cloud cover, coupled with modest boundary-layer moisture
and weak midlevel lapse rates are resulting in MLCAPE around 500
J/kg or less. Additionally, vertical shear will remain somewhat low.
Latest HRRR and RRFS guidance indicates very low storm coverage
through this evening. Any stronger cells that do develop may produce
small hail, but overall severe potential appears lower than previous
expected.

The previous outlook remains on track across the southern High
Plains vicinity, and severe storms are expected into this evening
and tonight. For more details, see previous discussion below.

...Leitman.. 09/15/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023/

....Eastern NM/West TX..
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over eastern NM
and west TX this morning, with weak east/northeasterly surface winds
across the region.  Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s are common,
which combined with moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should
yield MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon.  Present
indications are that scattered storms will form off the higher
terrain of eastern NM after 21z as large scale forcing for ascent
strengthens ahead of a shortwave trough now over the Four Corners
region.  These storms will track slowly eastward and intensify as
they move into west TX this evening.  Westerly mid/upper level winds
will be sufficiently strong for a few supercells capable of large
hail and locally gusty winds.

$$

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