Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 15 2023 19:33:19

AWUS01 KWNH 151933
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Far Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151930Z - 160030Z

SUMMARY...Approaching strong storms interacting with the sea
breeze front may trigger strong storms over the Houston metro area
within the hour. Flash flooding is possible in low lying areas and
poor drainage spots.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorms have blossomed the the west of
the greater Houston metro area and to the east along I-10 near
Beaumont. Storms have flared up within an environment that sports
as much as 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, PWs >2.0", and effective bulk
shear ranging between 25-30 kts. RAP model soundings at 20Z shows
an environment over Houston that includes >90% low-mid level RH
and warm cloud layers as deep as 14,000ft. These parameters all
support a somewhat organized thunderstorm threat with storms
capable of producing 2-3"/hr rainfall rates. This has been
identified at Beaumont (KBPT) where rainfall totals reached 1.80"
in less than 30 minutes.

It is worth noting much of the region needs the rain, as evidence
by the UNL U.S. Drought Monitor showing severe to exceptional
drought in the region. That said, with hourly rainfall rates
>2"/hr possible, areas with exceptionally dry soil may not be able
to take in rainfall fast enough and result in rapid runoff. This
is especially the case within the Houston metro, which is more
at-risk given the greater concentration of impervious surfaces
present. Storms should be able to stick around for a couple hours
given the available vertical wind shear and instability, but
should dissipate not long after 00Z. In short, flash flooding is
possible this afternoon with areas containing the greatest
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces and location that drain
poorly most at-risk.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4izrhBQ1DLmTgARBDpu5cRCKIKlw1RQLsWLIdRoSRs0vuVuec4e6oLmBYfsNp0ElakMf=
5krMJ7UKnkdoqE97u737Eh4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30439476 30309354 29859359 29539470 29189541=20
            28969605 29059635 29529653 30169626 30419568=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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