Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 15 2023 17:04:35

ACUS02 KWNS 151704
SWODY2
SPC AC 151702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday
afternoon across portions of eastern Iowa, northern Missouri and
northwest Illinois. Hail near 1 inch diameter and a few strong gusts
may accompany the strongest storms.

....Mid-Mississippi Valley Vicinity...

An upper trough will develop eastward across the Upper Midwest/MS
Valley on Saturday. Cool temperatures aloft (around -16 to -18 C at
500 mb) will contribute to modestly steep midlevel lapse rates atop
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. This will support
modest destabilization, with MLCAPE values around 500-750 J/kg
forecast. Vertical shear will remain somewhat weak, around 20-25 kt.
This should be sufficient for isolated organized cells/clusters near
an east/southeast moving cold front during the afternoon. 12z
forecast guidance (CAMs, HREF, etc) have trended a bit west,
necessitating a westward expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk across parts of northern MO and southeast IA. Convection should
weaken with eastward extent during the evening (00-01z time frame).

...Leitman.. 09/15/2023

$$

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