Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 15 2023 15:58:34

ACUS01 KWNS 151558
SWODY1
SPC AC 151556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS....

....SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and a brief
tornado or two are most likely across the southern High Plains,
mainly from late afternoon into tonight.

....Eastern NM/West TX..
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over eastern NM
and west TX this morning, with weak east/northeasterly surface winds
across the region.  Surface dewpoints in the low/mid 60s are common,
which combined with moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should
yield MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg by late afternoon.  Present
indications are that scattered storms will form off the higher
terrain of eastern NM after 21z as large scale forcing for ascent
strengthens ahead of a shortwave trough now over the Four Corners
region.  These storms will track slowly eastward and intensify as
they move into west TX this evening.  Westerly mid/upper level winds
will be sufficiently strong for a few supercells capable of large
hail and locally gusty winds.

...Hart/Wendt.. 09/15/2023

$$

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