Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 15 2023 11:24:42

AWUS01 KWNH 151124
FFGMPD
GAZ000-151550-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Areas affected...Central GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151120Z - 151550Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and heavy shower activity across areas of
central and northern GA this morning may result in concerns for
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a general east/west
axis of heavy shower activity that is very slow-moving across
areas of central GA early this morning. The convection is focused
along the edge of a moderately strong, but elevated, instability
gradient with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg across areas of
central GA. There is a low-amplitude shortwave trough traversing
the Southeast, and this energy coupled with some weak low-level
convergence and frontogenetical forcing along the instability
gradient appear to be the main drivers of this ongoing convective
activity.

Some expansion of this heavy shower activity off to the west is
suggested in the 06Z HREF guidance, and the 10Z HRRR at least has
some semblance of the current activity although it appears to be
attempting to weaken the convection a bit too quickly. The latest
GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows relatively warm/shallow
convective tops, and this suggests a fair amount of warm rain
processes going on for efficient rainfall.

Expect rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour to be likely with some
of this heavier shower activity at least in the near-term, with
some isolated pockets of 3 to 5 inch totals possible going through
the late morning hours. At least some isolated areas of flash
flooding will be possible as a result.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7e3XTX45PPFVGy3NtASa7GTh9pD76zCrzej6ht7a3nAE9qjX9EH1C1I1UFos0bcO8szw=
BOHn70aU3cAHAztyIej5qFw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33788412 33468267 33068189 32518191 32538282=20
            33088440 33608457=20

=3D =3D =3D
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