Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2150
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 15 2023 08:43:04

ACUS11 KWNS 150842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150842=20
TXZ000-151045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas into Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 150842Z - 151045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms continues to move east-southeast
across portions of west Texas this morning. Strong-to-severe wind
gusts will remain possible for the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A linear mesoscale convective system (MCS) continues to
organize across portions of the southern Texas Panhandle into West
Texas. The southern area of this linear MCS has organized more
quickly than the northern area and has strengthened over the last
hour. Recent reports in the wake of the line indicate winds ranging
from 60-80 miles per hour. The overall environment ahead of this
line of storms remains favorable for continued strong-to-severe
gusts (most-unstable CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg and effective-layer
shear around 30 knots) for at least the next hour. After then
uncertainty increases as the storms will be moving into an
increasingly more stable atmosphere with most-unstable CAPE values
around 500 J/kg and a deepening nocturnally stable layer. However,
given the established nature of the MCS, severe wind potential may
persist into the less favorable environment. The area will continued
to be monitored.

...Marsh/Grams.. 09/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Pqb4wNu5Z31p157BC4ph-sSexDUpJmq2ZjAk7foPo1KAhNxyoNRvcTadLFMNgmLmIDK__2a_=
uv1ouoE_Vq_iY6hBuk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33230202 34000192 34200054 34049958 33449893 32879877
            32369909 33020068 33230202=20


=3D =3D =3D
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