Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 15 2023 07:28:04

ACUS03 KWNS 150727
SWODY3
SPC AC 150727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible mainly Sunday evening
over eastern North Carolina.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough initially over the lower OH Valley/Mid South will
pivot eastward reach the southern Appalachians by early Monday
morning.  A surface front will push east across the Mid South during
the day before accelerating east over the Carolinas during the
evening.  A weak surface low is forecast to develop over the
Carolina Piedmont and subsequently move northeast east of the
Mid-Atlantic coast by the overnight.  Southerly low-level flow over
the coastal Carolinas and adjacent Gulf Stream will advect richer
moisture into eastern NC (upper 60s inland to the lower 70s near the
coast).  Although lapse rates will likely remain meager,
strengthening and veering flow with height and forcing for ascent
associated with the approaching mid-level trough, will probably
promote weak buoyancy (200-500 J/kg MLCAPE) and widely scattered
thunderstorms.  The potential for upscale growth into a band of
storms may yield an isolated risk for wind damage during the evening
before this activity moves east of the coast.

...Smith.. 09/15/2023

$$

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