Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 15 2023 05:51:33

ACUS02 KWNS 150551
SWODY2
SPC AC 150549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday
afternoon for a small portion of the middle Mississippi Valley.

....Middle MS Valley...
A mid to upper-level trough will move south-southeast from the Upper
Midwest to the lower OH Valley/Mid South during the period.  A few
showers and weak convection will likely extend from eastern KS
northeast into southern WI/northern IL Saturday morning ahead of a
cold front.  The front will push southeast during the day and
strengthening upper forcing for ascent will quickly move from the
Upper Midwest into the mid MS Valley by early afternoon.  Heating
via cloud breaks within a narrow low-level moisture plume ahead of
the front, will favor weak buoyancy developing by early afternoon
(500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE).  Model guidance continues to suggest mid to
upper 50s degree F dewpoints prior to storms developing by early to
mid afternoon.  Relatively cool mid levels (-15 deg C at 500 mb) may
result in a few storms potentially capable of marginally severe hail
(around 1 inch in diameter).  One of more clusters or short bands
will probably evolve by mid-late afternoon given the strength of
forcing.  A localized strong/damaging gust or two may also occur
with the more intense downdrafts before this activity weakens
towards early evening.

Elsewhere, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during the day from the central/southern Rockies east across TX and
into parts of the Southeast.  Limited storm organization potential
based on shear/CAPE will likely lead to relatively disorganized
thunderstorms.

...Smith.. 09/15/2023

$$

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