Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 15 2023 00:46:02

ACUS01 KWNS 150045
SWODY1
SPC AC 150044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible along an axis from
eastern New Mexico to the Texas Gulf Coast this evening.

....01z Update...

Southern stream remains active this evening as this low-latitude
branch of the westerlies continues from the desert southwest, across
TX into the Carolinas. Multiple weak low-amplitude short-wave
troughs are noted along this corridor, the vast majority of which
are encouraging at least scattered showers with some deeper, more
robust updrafts. One such feature has advanced into the lower Sabine
River Valley with another near the Four Corners. Scattered
strong/isolated severe persists in the wake of the first feature
along a frontal zone draped across south TX. Until the boundary
layer cools across this region, gusty winds may accompany the
strongest convection, especially across the middle/upper Coastal
Plain.

Upstream, more isolated thunderstorms are noted within a weak
upslope environment over the High Plains, across eastern NM into
northwest TX. This activity will propagate southeast this evening,
with some risk for marginally severe hail or gusty winds.

...Darrow.. 09/15/2023

$$

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