Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2149
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 14 2023 20:52:28

ACUS11 KWNS 142052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142051=20
TXZ000-142245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Areas affected...central and into southeastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142051Z - 142245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage may increase a bit over the next 1
to 2 hours over central Texas, accompanied by risk for hail and/or
strong/gusty winds.  WW is not anticipated at this time, due to what
appears likely to remain isolated coverage.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar and visible satellite loops show isolated
convection evolving across portions of central Texas, from the
Edwards Plateau to the Hill Country region.  Meanwhile, a composite
outflow/sea-breeze boundary is evident in the visible satellite
loop, surging westward from coastal convection.  Within the zone
delineated by the developing storms to the west, and the boundary
moving inland, an axis of moderate instability (1500 to 2000 J/kg
mixed-layer CAPE) is noted, on the southern/western side of the
primary surface cold front.

Given these factors, it would appear that storms will be sustained
over the next few hours, with some additional development of new
storms likely.  With modest but sufficient shear (0-6km shear near
30 kt) indicated across the area to support organized/rotating
storms (and weak supercell characteristics noted in stronger/ongoing
storms), hail and gusty/damaging winds will be possible with the
most intense updrafts.

At this time, isolated storm coverage that is expected, would
suggest that WW issuance may not be required.  However, we will
continue to monitor development, for signs of
greater-than-anticipated coverage of stronger storms, which could
warrant reconsideration of the need to consider a watch.

...Goss/Hart.. 09/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!96o4NzqKLfn8gDOZNsmNp1ebikzXlkvB4u-K70wJ_Nm8xsav0IPUo8JYasdaZQkwKDGza86c9=
MOxOfjvDbrGDZu2iJM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30669965 31339854 30989738 29849612 28899715 29419904
            29800048 30669965=20


=3D =3D =3D
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