Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Sep 14 2023 17:31:28 ACUS02 KWNS 141731 SWODY2 SPC AC 141729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the southern High Plains eastward into central portions of Texas on Friday and Friday night. ....Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Friday, as a cold front moves through the northern Plains into parts of MN/WI. Generally zonal mid/upper-level flow will persist across much of the southern CONUS on Friday, in advance of a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving eastward near the Four Corners region. ....Southern High Plains into central TX... Isolated strong to potentially severe storms will be possible across a broad region from the southern High Plains into central TX on Friday, though confidence remains relatively low regarding the details and potential corridors of greater severe potential. Convection will likely be ongoing across parts of west-central/northwest TX Friday morning, though guidance varies regarding the location and intensity of any ongoing convection. If a more organized MCS can develop late in the D1/Thursday period, then it may spread southeastward across central TX during the day on Friday with an isolated severe-wind threat. However, with an already modest low-level jet expected to weaken through the day, confidence in this scenario remains low. Additional diurnal storm development will be possible Friday afternoon near an outflow-reinforced surface boundary that will likely be draped somewhere across central into southwest TX, and also across eastern NM within a favorably moist low-level flow regime in advance of the shortwave trough near the Four Corners region. Modest westerly midlevel flow will provide marginally sufficient effective shear for a few organized storms, including some potential for isolated supercells with initial more discrete development. Some severe hail threat will accompany the stronger discrete storms, especially from eastern NM into parts of the TX Panhandle/South Plains, where midlevel lapse rates will be steeper. With time, some southeastward-moving clusters may evolve and pose a risk of localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail spreading into parts of central and south TX during the evening/overnight. ....Eastern MN into northwest WI... In the wake of weak morning convection, isolated diurnal storm development will be possible along the cold front from eastern MN into northwest WI. While favorably cold temperatures aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates will spread over the region, limited low-level moisture and buoyancy may tend to limit storm coverage and intensity. If confidence increases in more robust storm development, then hail probabilities may eventually be needed for the region. ...Dean.. 09/14/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .