Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 14 2023 16:26:00

ACUS01 KWNS 141625
SWODY1
SPC AC 141624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST....

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm are possible along an axis from eastern
New Mexico to the Texas Gulf Coast, mainly from mid-afternoon
through this evening.

....NM/TX...
Current visible satellite imagery and surface analysis shows a
boundary extending from southeast NM into central TX.  A very moist
and moderately unstable air mass is present along and south of this
boundary, along with mostly clear skies and steepening low level
lapse rates.  Large scale forcing is weak across this region, but
most 12z CAM solutions show isolated thunderstorms developing near
the boundary by late afternoon and evening.  Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient mid/upper level westerly flow for organized
multicell or occasional supercell structures capable of hail and
gusty winds.

...Hart.. 09/14/2023

$$

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