Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 14 2023 12:44:29

ACUS01 KWNS 141244
SWODY1
SPC AC 141242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NM TO
THE TX GULF COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm are possible from eastern New Mexico to
the Texas Gulf Coast, mainly from mid-afternoon through this
evening.

....TX and eastern NM...
A confluent belt of mid-level westerlies will persist across the
region with 25-35 kt winds at 500 mb supporting potential for
isolated severe storms. A pair of convectively induced mid-level
impulses, one over central TX and the other over northwest TX,
interacting with weak low-level warm advection have contributed to
ongoing scattered convection. Attendant showers/cloudiness will
likely linger through at least midday, yielding an increase in
differential heating as more abundant insolation occurs across south
and southwest TX. Relatively greater potential for a few supercells
to form should be in the central to south-central TX vicinity along
the composite outflow/front. South of this boundary, moderate
buoyancy should develop, despite modest mid-level lapse rates, and
become coincident with adequate 0-3 km SRH. Potential will exist for
isolated gusts of 50-65 mph and hail of 0.75-1.25 inches, along with
a brief tornado or two, mainly from mid-afternoon to mid-evening
before convection likely weakens after dusk.

Farther west-northwest, isolated thunderstorms should develop off
the higher terrain of eastern NM during the mid to late afternoon.
Much of this activity should lie north of the surface front, aiding
in a weak low-level upslope flow component which should maintain
convection gradually spreading southeast into portions of west TX
during the evening. The environment here will tend to favor isolated
hail from 0.75-1.5 inches as the primary threat, although locally
strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph will be possible.

...Grams/Mosier.. 09/14/2023

$$

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