Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 14 2023 08:48:06

ACUS48 KWNS 140847
SWOD48
SPC AC 140846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model guidance shows a mid-level trough moving through
the East during the Sunday-Monday period (days 4-5).  Potential for
severe thunderstorms will likely be limited with this system, owing
to dry air advection from tropical cyclone Lee having some influence
on the quality of moisture and destabilization potential for
portions of the Mid-Atlantic states on Sunday.  The pattern becomes
less amplified/more zonal across the CONUS on Tuesday with moisture
return into the southern Great Plains.  Models show split flow over
the West evolving into a larger-scale trough potentially by midweek
next week.  A more active pattern for severe may develop towards the
end of the extended period and focus over the Great Plains.

...Smith.. 09/14/2023

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