Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 14 2023 07:27:26

ACUS03 KWNS 140727
SWODY3
SPC AC 140726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for
Saturday across the contiguous United States.

....Synopsis...
Primary upper feature of importance for thunderstorm activity will
be a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest moving
south-southeastward into the mid MS Valley by early Sunday morning.
In the low levels, a cold front associated with the Midwest
mid-level disturbance will move southeast across the western half of
the Midwest during the period.  A narrow moisture plume will extend
from the southern Great Plains northeastward into northern
MO/southern IA and into northwest IL during the day.  Mostly upper
50s surface dewpoints beneath cooling mid-level temperatures will
result in at least modest instability developing.  Model guidance
varies considerably regarding the magnitude of destabilization
across northern MO into southern IA and far western IL ahead of
mid-level wave.  SREF ensemble member spread and variability amongst
deterministic model suite (i.e., EC, GFS, NAM) render appreciable
uncertainty for an isolated severe risk across this region.

Elsewhere, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
during the day from the central/southern Rockies east across TX and
into parts of the Southeast.  Limited storm organization potential
based on shear/CAPE will likely lead to relatively disorganized
thunderstorms.

...Smith.. 09/14/2023

$$

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