Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 14 2023 05:56:58

ACUS02 KWNS 140556
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over the southern High
Plains eastward into central portions of Texas on Friday and Friday
night.

....Southern High Plains into central TX...
Water-vapor imagery early Thursday morning shows a mid- to
upper-level trough moving slowly southeastward into the northern
Great Basin.  This upper feature will be initially over eastern
UT/western CO Friday morning and move southeastward into the Sangre
de Cristos and weaken by Friday night.  Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible Friday morning north of a residual
surface front over the TX Panhandle into western OK.  This early day
activity will likely dissipate during the day.  A moist axis will
extend from south-central TX northwestward through parts of west TX
and into eastern NM.  Heating will contribute to moderate
destabilization during the afternoon with 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in a
corridor from the Edwards Plateau through the Permian Basin and
eastern NM.  Model guidance indicates scattered thunderstorms will
develop near the Sangre de Cristos eastward along the Raton Mesa.
Lower probability/more isolated thunderstorm activity could also
develop farther south over the Permian Basin along the frontal zone
and perhaps farther east over central TX.  The influence of stronger
high-level westerly flow atop low-level southeasterlies will result
in a wind profile supporting organized storm structures.  Isolated
large hail and severe gusts will probably accompany the stronger
storms beginning during the mid-late afternoon, and this severe
storm threat may persist into the late evening if a mesoscale
convective system develops.  Uncertainty is relatively high
regarding placement/evolution of thunderstorms over this general
region, precluding higher severe probabilities this forecast update.

...Smith.. 09/14/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.