Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2146
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 20:01:23

ACUS11 KWNS 132001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132000=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Areas affected...southern New England/Long Island

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132000Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe-weather potential with isolated/strong storms will
exist for the next few hours across parts of southern New England
and adjacent Long Island.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection redeveloping in an
isolated manner across Connecticut and the Long Island Vicinity,
within an axis of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer cape across this
area.  The most substantial storm at this time is occurring over
Long Island Sound, exhibiting supercell characteristics.  Another
strong storm  is evolving over Windham County in northeastern
Connecticut, and will move into northern Rhode Island shortly.

Overall, with ample instability existing within an axis just ahead
of the cold front, and a wind profile -- per the KBOX WSR-88D VWP --
that reveals veering/increasing flow with height supporting
organized/rotating updrafts, severe risk will be possible locally,
through about sunset.  While gusty outflow winds will likely be the
main risk, marginal hail or even a brief tornado could also occur.

...Goss/Guyer.. 09/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5EjxvhL7lsCqlL7ZomBdBJtaQ_Eg3Ut-_LEhqXhtUAg85w87xNS1U7VWSayUz1ZodrMh3bkGA=
CEqFJMU3nsAzzFSWos$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   40677342 41247298 41977188 42417076 42006976 41336963
            40567247 40677342=20


=3D =3D =3D
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