Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 20:02:24 ACUS01 KWNS 132002 SWODY1 SPC AC 132000 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO WEST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of southern New England, the Southwest into West Texas, and from Georgia to the South Atlantic coast this afternoon into this evening. ....20Z Update... A few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across CT into Long Island Sound, in the wake of earlier morning convection. Wind profiles (as noted in VWPs from KOKX and KBOX) continue to be somewhat favorable for organized convection, and locally damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon and potentially into the early evening. The Marginal Risk has been trimmed slightly from the west, but otherwise maintained across parts of southern New England. See MCD 2146 for more information. Elsewhere, the Marginal Risks across parts of the Southeast and Southwest/West TX remain unchanged. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Dean.. 09/13/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023/ ....Southern New England... A cluster of generally weakening thunderstorms is currently ongoing across the region and could still pose some continued strong/localized severe storm risk. For additional short-term information (through early afternoon), see Mesoscale Discussion 2145. Weak lapse rates and modest overall heating/buoyancy, along with marginal low-level shear, may keep the overall severe risk low. While uncertain, various short-term guidance is insistent that additional redevelopment could occur this afternoon in the wake of this morning's thunderstorm cluster, with renewed development potentially across southwest New England in proximity to the weak surface wave and eastward-advancing front. Should this happen, some severe risk could redevelop as diurnal destabilization occurs across a somewhat broader part of southern New England this afternoon. ....Arizona/New Mexico to West Texas... A low-amplitude mid-level disturbance over the southern Rockies will continue eastward toward west/north Texas through tonight. Conditionally, the most favorable area for a few supercells should be over the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos of West Texas. Despite near moist-adiabatic mid-level lapse rates, including a lower hail risk than typical supercell situations, favorable speed shear will exist above 700 mb to support an elongated mid to upper hodograph. Nevertheless, timing of large-scale ascent attendant to the impulse appears to be early relative to peak heating, and boundary-layer warming will be the key driver to the degree of instability today. Accordingly, will continue to maintain a broad corridor of relatively low severe probabilities at this time, while still acknowledging some potential for storm clustering across west/southwest Texas later this afternoon/evening that could semi-focus a wind-related severe risk. Otherwise, isolated, marginal severe hail/wind will be possible from late afternoon to mid-evening over the southeast part of Arizona and southwest into east-central New Mexico. ....South Atlantic coast... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along the coastal sea breeze and across the Savannah Valley in association with a remnant MCV. While 0-3 km winds will be light, 20-25 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies could support loose multicell clustering with locally strong gusts from 45-60 mph, with a peak threat in the late afternoon. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .