Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 18:50:29

AWUS01 KWNH 131850
FFGMPD
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-140045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Areas affected...Southern New England and Portions of Long island

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131848Z - 140045Z

Summary...Redevelopment of heavy thunderstorms ahead of the cold
front is expected into this evening across Southern New England
and along the Long Island Sound, bringing renewed localized flash
flood threats.

Discussion...Linear redevelopment of shows and embedded
thunderstorms will continue ahead of a slowing cold front
currently draped along the eastern NY border with a mesolow over
northwest CT. The upper low over eastern Ontario will continue to
open into a negatively tilted trough this evening with further
extension of the 80-100kt the southerly jet into northern New
England expected. This will further increase right entrance
dynamics for southern New England, which combined with sufficient
500 to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE and an axis of 1.7" PW will allow growth
of heavy thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.

Recent hourly estimates from KOKX and KBOX are up to 1" over
central CT stretching back to near NYC. This activity will lift
northeast rest of this afternoon on strengthening SWly low level
flow (around 25kt at 850mb), with up to 2"/hr rainfall possible.
Areas in central/eastern CT that saw heavy rain earlier today are
likely to receive a second round.

A localized flash flood threat continues until the cold front
passes, which is expected to be by mid-evening for most of New
England.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!43MDCxQumeEGyv_LV5JA6QQNIF0Lb4O4fFqGBM27DU9lPPn1I6gS22ol39jX2Fl7xxCO=
Ck_B51sTsdi3R4eWqF5GGtM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43777053 43727022 43327013 42787033 42227054=20
            41667082 41397103 41257134 41137252 40857304=20
            40827381 41647315 42297255 42737184 43427105=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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