Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 17:25:26 ACUS02 KWNS 131725 SWODY2 SPC AC 131723 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The potential for organized severe thunderstorms is forecast to be low on Thursday. ....Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move northeastward away from New England on Thursday, while another trough will move southeastward and amplify over the northern Plains. Generally weak and zonal flow will persist across the southern CONUS, with embedded shortwaves potentially moving across parts of the southern Rockies/Plains. An outflow-reinforced surface boundary will be draped somewhere across central/south TX, with the western portion of this boundary taking on a more north-south orientation across the southern High Plains. Farther north, a weak cold front will move through parts of the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. ....Eastern NM into much of TX... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of eastern NM into parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains, within a relatively moist post-frontal regime. Severe potential may be limited by generally modest instability and weak deep-layer shear, though a few strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail near severe limits will be possible. Farther east, storm coverage becomes increasingly uncertain in the wake of anticipated morning convection, though at least isolated redevelopment will be possible near/north of the surface boundary from west-central TX toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally remain rather weak, though any cells/clusters that can persist near the surface boundary may become somewhat organized. At this time, the threat appears too nebulous across the region to introduce severe probabilities, though an isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. ....NE into eastern SD/western MN... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected Thursday afternoon near the weak cold front that will be moving through the region. Generally weak instability and deep-layer shear should tend to limit storm organization and the overall severe threat, though modestly well-mixed boundary layers may support gusty winds with the strongest storms. ...Dean.. 09/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .