Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 07:38:52 ACUS03 KWNS 130738 SWODY3 SPC AC 130737 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms will exist in parts of eastern New Mexico into West Texas on Friday. ....Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig southward into the Upper Midwest and parts of the Ohio Valley on Friday. Upper-level ridging within the West will move slowly eastward. A weak extension of the Upper Midwest trough will trail southwestward into the Four Corners region. ....Eastern New Mexico and West Texas... A weak surface boundary will remain from coastal Texas northwestward into parts of the southern High Plains. A modest low-level jet may promote showers/thunderstorms from central Texas into the Texas Panhandle and portions of eastern New Mexico. This activity will potentially hinder destabilization in some areas. The NAM is much quicker to clear out this activity than the ECMWF. Modest mid-level flow from the subtropical jet will remain in the region, promoting 30-40 kts of shear. Forecast soundings show long hodographs that would indicate some risk for at least marginally severe hail, though buoyancy being somewhat modest (perhaps peaking around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) should limit the threat. The potential for severe wind gusts may also exist and be locally maximized where surface heating is greatest. The weak shortwave trough near the Four Corners could also promote greater thunderstorm coverage developing within north-central/northeast New Mexico. Should this clustering occur, it could move southeastward along the boundary and pose a more organized threat for strong/severe wind gusts. ...Wendt.. 09/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .