Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 06:52:03

AWUS01 KWNH 130651
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-130900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1063
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Areas affected...portions of Delaware, eastern Maryland, and New
Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130650Z - 130900Z

Summary...A complex of deep convection will traverse the area,
with 2+ inch/hr rain rates potentially resulting in areas of flash
flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms that were over central Maryland and the
I-95 corridor earlier have now grown upscale into a couple broken
bands that extend from just east of Wilmington, DE to near
Salisbury, MD.  The storms have exhibited more forward propagation
compared to earlier (especially over central Delaware/southern New
Jersey currently), although storm motions are still slow enough to
promote rain rates around 2 inches/hr or more especially near the
Dover area.  Given the fact that the storms continue in a very
moist/moderately unstable environment (1.8 inch PW values) and
still exhibit some degree of localized training, 2+ inch/hr rain
rates can continue to be expected as storms migrate toward open
waters of the far western Atlantic.  These rates will approach FFG
thresholds in a few areas (generally ranging from 1.5-2.5 inch/hr
- higher in southeastern New Jersey), and urbanized areas/low
spots will continue to experience a flash flood threat from this
activity.

As mentioned earlier, storm are exhibiting some degree of
east-northeastward forward propagation that should carry them
toward coastal areas and the Atlantic through 09Z.  The flash
flood threat is likely to decrease substantially thereafter.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-1PxrJOgcnhouCZMDF29aZrLnBTvw4b7N2wjwsxXUUGsieAc2TTNWR6PFwxlP_Mb8zk_=
dajCi4yAViNTzoahsDudVdw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40247426 39947373 37977500 38017600 38797597=20
            39957517=20

=3D =3D =3D
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