Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 05:44:49

ACUS02 KWNS 130544
SWODY2
SPC AC 130543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe thunderstorms is forecast to be
low on Thursday.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will swing through the Northeast early
Thursday morning. Upper-level flow over the middle third of the
CONUS will generally be zonal, though a trough is expected to dig
into the northern Plains by late in the period. At the surface, a
remnant front will be situated from roughly central Texas into
eastern New Mexico.

....Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
Precipitation driven by warm advection is expected to be ongoing
early in the period. While some destabilization is possible south of
the boundary, it is unclear how much will occur due to the early
precipitation. Furthermore, forcing for ascent is expected to be
nebulous/weak. There is a conditional threat for a stronger
afternoon storm or two given the modest belt of mid-level winds
aloft (0-6 km shear will be around 25-30 kts during the afternoon).
Additional storms may develop as the low-level jet increases again
Thursday evening, but these storms are likely to be somewhat
elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Severe weather potential
still appears too low for unconditional probabilities.

...Wendt.. 09/13/2023

$$

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