Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2142
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 04:44:19

ACUS11 KWNS 130444
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130443=20
NJZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-130615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Areas affected...much of Delaware into far southern New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130443Z - 130615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms over eastern Maryland may persist for
a couple hours as it moves across Delaware and into southern New
Jersey, producing locally strong to severe gusts.

DISCUSSION...Several storms near Chesapeake Bay have congealed into
a rather impressive cluster given an environment of modest
instability and weak shear. Surface analysis shows ample moisture in
place with 70s F dewpoints, and temperatures aloft are relatively
cool as seen on point forecast soundings. The cluster is near a warm
front, and aided by southerly winds around 20 kt just off the
surface. A severe gust of 54 kt was recently measured at KMTN around
04Z.=20

Given the size of ongoing mass of storms, and continued inflow of
moisture and uncapped airmass, MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg, a continued
risk of isolated severe gusts is possible across DE and perhaps into
far southern NJ.

...Jewell/Edwards.. 09/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-UYlE6g9WU5_9-_jaHL9EWUeQ_orFxJBj7WDK4v8eNTt6XT7xo7PTbXmVtsXMMbqme8h94t3s=
MNaMTST8Naf6vlAtaM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   38517484 38537546 38647571 38877589 39147604 39317608
            39597613 39747587 39777527 39677429 39557410 39177459
            38867468 38517484=20


=3D =3D =3D
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