Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 13 2023 00:45:48

ACUS01 KWNS 130045
SWODY1
SPC AC 130044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTHWESTERN US...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across
parts of the Mid-Atlantic States, portions of the Florida Peninsula,
and southern Arizona to southwest New Mexico.

....01z Update...

Boundary-layer cooling will soon contribute to weakening low-level
lapse rates, and buoyancy, across most of the CONUS currently
exemplified by thunder/low severe probabilities. Several pockets of
thunderstorm clusters currently persist, especially across southeast
GA/northern FL Peninsula, Mid-Atlantic, and more isolated over the
southwestern States.

Given the expected stabilization over the next few hours, severe
probabilities have been lowered across the southern
Mid-Atlantic/southern Appalachians. Approaching upper
trough/low-level warm advection will focus across the northern
Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva region later tonight. Although lapse rates
will remain weak, increasing flow suggests some risk for a few
organized updrafts.

Ongoing clusters from southeast GA to the northern FL Peninsula
should gradually wane this evening as they propagate slowly
east-southeast.

Isolated thunderstorms will continue across AZ into NM overnight, as
two weak short-wave troughs migrate across this region.  This will
occur as the southern branch of the westerlies has established
itself from southern CA into TX. 00z sounding from TUS exhibits
seasonally steep lapse rates with PW values around 1.60". Modest
deep-layer shear continues to support some updraft organization.

...Darrow.. 09/13/2023

$$

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