Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2141
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 12 2023 21:29:17

ACUS11 KWNS 122129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122128=20
NMZ000-AZZ000-122300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0428 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona and southern New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122128Z - 122300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential may occur over the next
few hours. Isolated bouts of severe hail/wind may accompany the
strongest storms and a WW is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Storms near the AZ/NM/international border area have
been percolating in intensity over the last couple of hours, with
MRMS mosaic radar imagery showing an increase in 1 inch MESH tracks
with some of the strongest storms. Recently, robust convective
initiation has taken place in far western Pinal County, AZ, where
slightly elongated hodographs and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE support
supercell structures capable of severe hail. A severe gust or two
also cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms. Overall, the
severe threat should be isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

...Squitieri.. 09/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8XZpQhUpy8nin26abt4qeMALvuacR4_8eOIv6n9Y-WIaysrmsBZwN4e-doNZFUvfnD3sKdi0A=
pE7sRihUGACO9sOLFY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   32921274 33661157 33930973 33380717 32890615 32430621
            31990665 31810744 31560790 31270838 31340938 31361045
            31541104 32111247 32921274=20


=3D =3D =3D
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