Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 12 2023 07:27:19

ACUS03 KWNS 120727
SWODY3
SPC AC 120726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Sep 12 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The potential for organized severe thunderstorms is forecast to be
low on Thursday.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on Thursday.
Another upper-level trough will dig southward out of the Canadian
Prairie and into the northern Plains. Some modest mid-level flow
will persist across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains
associated with the subtropical jet. A remnant cold front will
remain within coastal Texas into the Trans-Pecos and Southwest.

Elevated showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible from the
Texas South Plains into North Texas with warm advection over the
remnant boundary. This activity casts doubt on the degree of
destabilization that is possible by afternoon. With modest mid-level
flow aloft, it is possible that a stronger storm or two could
develop during the afternoon, but uncertainty is high. There is a
higher probability that storms will again increase in coverage when
the low-level jet increases during the evening. By that time, storms
would likely not be surface based. The overall potential for severe
weather remains too low for unconditional probabilities.

...Wendt.. 09/12/2023

$$

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