Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 12 2023 00:47:19

ACUS01 KWNS 120047
SWODY1
SPC AC 120045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind and hail remain possible across parts of
eastern New Mexico and west Texas this evening.

....01z Update...

Notable short-wave trough is currently advancing across the southern
Plains. Back edge of large-scale forcing appears to be near I35 over
OK, but the strongest convection actually trails the trough, within
increasing northwesterly flow, arcing across northwest TX into
southeast NM along a cold front. Latest diagnostic data suggests a
reservoir of modest instability continues across the warm sector
over west/southwest TX. 00z sounding from MAF appears to have
sampled this well with MLCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg and steep
low-midlevel lapse rates. With surface-6km shear around 30-35kt,
scattered discrete updrafts and clusters will likely continue for
the next several hours, propagating southeast within strengthening
northwesterly flow aloft. Gusty winds are possible with this
activity, along with some hail potential.

....FL Peninsula...

Modest southwesterly flow persists across the FL Peninsula this
evening as a weak midlevel trough is expected to move very slowly
across the central Gulf Basin overnight. Cluster of strong
convection developed over the northeastern Peninsula and continues
to propagate slowly southeast within an environment favorable for
robust updrafts. 00z soundings from this region do not exhibit
particularly steep lapse rates, so boundary-layer cooling should
contribute to weakening updrafts over the next few hours.

...Darrow.. 09/12/2023

$$

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