Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 11 2023 16:42:45 ACUS01 KWNS 111642 SWODY1 SPC AC 111640 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind and large hail will be possible across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. A few storms may be significantly severe with wind gusts to 80 mph and hail to tennis ball size. ....Eastern New Mexico/west Texas... No appreciable outlook changes appear warranted for the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern High Plains, and associated belt of enhanced (40 kt) mid-level westerlies, will continue generally eastward over the south-central Plains, and toward the Ozarks/ArkLaTex through late tonight. This will be as a relatively strong cold front continues southward and accelerates later this afternoon into tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely to develop off the higher terrain of New Mexico, first along and to the cool side of the surface boundary during the early to mid-afternoon and later into the well-mixed boundary layer over the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains. Isolated thunderstorms may also form near the surface front/dryline intersection in the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country vicinity. For this latter region, a more favorable discrete supercell wind profile and slower undercutting of the surface front may yield a threat for 2-2.5 inch hail amid MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Storms farther west should tend to more quickly consolidate into southeast-moving clusters. Those clusters that can anchor along the undercutting front into the deeply mixed air to the south should have the best chance to produce occasional severe wind gusts from 60-80 mph. These threats should gradually weaken after dusk, but may persist on an isolated basis across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau vicinity of west-central Texas as a low-level jet strengthens over the Lower Pecos Valley. ....North/central Florida... Ample heating is occurring at midday with temperatures commonly soaring into the lower 90s F, which is contributing to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms should develop along sea breeze boundaries this afternoon and likely collide over the central/eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. 20-25 kt effective bulk shear could favor loose multicell clustering with a threat of sporadic wind gusts from 40-60 mph and possibly small hail. ....Southern New England... While locally heavy rainfall will likely be the primary scenario, it is possible that adequate buoyancy will exist with modest-strength westerlies for some potential of localized wind damage with a few of the thunderstorms. However, any such potential should remain very limited/localized with the overall risk of organized severe storms remaining low. ...Guyer/Thornton.. 09/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .