Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Sep 11 2023 12:53:41 ACUS01 KWNS 111253 SWODY1 SPC AC 111251 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF EASTERN NM AND WEST TX... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind and large hail will be possible across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. A few storms may be significantly severe with gusts to 80 mph and hail to tennis ball size. ....Eastern NM and west TX... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the southern Rockies will track east near the KS/OK border area through this evening. To the south of this impulse, a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies (around 45 kts sampled by the 12Z ABQ sounding) across much of NM will overspread northwest through west-central TX, aiding in organized severe storm potential later today. Meanwhile, the baroclinic zone across a surface cold front that arcs from east-central NM to the northeast TX Panhandle will intensify as pronounced differential diabatic heating occurs. The surface temperature gradient across the zone should exceed 40 F by 21Z. This front will accelerate southward this afternoon as surface ridging builds in the wake of the shortwave impulse passage. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely to emanate off the higher terrain of NM, first along and to the cool side of the surface boundary during the early to mid-afternoon and later into the well-mixed boundary layer over the Permian Basin and TX South Plains. Isolated thunderstorms may also form near the surface front/dryline intersection in the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country vicinity. For this latter region, a more favorable discrete supercell wind profile and slower undercutting of the surface front may yield a threat for 2-2.5 inch hail amid MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Storms farther west should tend to more quickly consolidate into southeast-moving clusters. Those clusters that can anchor along the undercutting front into the deeply mixed air to the south should have the best chance to produce occasional severe wind gusts from 60-80 mph. These threats should gradually weaken after dusk, but may persist on an isolated basis across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau vicinity of west-central TX as a low-level jet strengthens over the Lower Pecos Valley. ....North/central FL... Ample insolation will boost surface temperatures away from the coasts into the low 90s, yielding MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Despite the lack of synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, isolated thunderstorms should develop along sea breeze boundaries and likely collide over the central/eastern portions of the peninsula. 20-25 kt effective bulk shear could favor loose multicell clustering with a threat of sporadic wind gusts from 40-60 mph and small hail. ...Grams/Mosier.. 09/11/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .