Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 11 2023 07:35:42

ACUS03 KWNS 110735
SWODY3
SPC AC 110734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the
southern High Plains and southern New England on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on Wednesday.
An attendant surface low will be moving northward in southern Quebec
with a trailing cold front southward into the Mid-Atlantic. Within
the southern Plains, a cold front will have pushed into the southern
Rockies. Modest mid-level winds will be present across the region as
a low-amplitude upper trough sags into the Four Corners.

....Southern New England...
While precipitation may be within the region during the morning,
particularly along the cold front, some additional thunderstorms are
possible by late morning/early afternoon where at least broken cloud
cover allows greater insolation. Despite modest mid-level lapse
rates and marginal buoyancy, a moist airmass with a veering wind
profile at low to mid levels will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of isolated damaging winds and possibly a tornado.

....Southern High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate
within the higher terrain and perhaps along the surface
trough/front. Weak upslope flow will help push low-level moisture
into the region. MLCAPE of around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg will
develop where temperatures can reach the mid/upper 70s F. A belt of
stronger flow within the subtropical jet stream (effective shear of
around 40 kts perpendicular to the terrain/boundary) will support a
few marginal supercell storms capable of large hail and isolated
strong/severe wind gusts.

...Wendt.. 09/11/2023

$$

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