Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 11 2023 04:34:44

AWUS01 KWNH 110434
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-111000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1234 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Maryland, northern Virginia,
New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and southern New York State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110432Z - 111000Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential should continue through
much of the night across the Mid-Atlantic.

Discussion...Isolated flash flood potential continues across the
discussion area.  Areas of isolated to scattered deep convection
continues in a series of bands and clusters extending from near
Culpepper, VA to near Annapolis, MD to southwestern New Jersey
near Camden to areas south of New York City.  The storms are in an
environment characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5+ inch
PW values, supporting efficient rainfall processes beneath the
more persistent storms.  Additionally, modest southwesterly flow
aloft was supporting slow (10-20 mph) northeasterly storm motions
that were generally parallel to the orientation of convective
bands, supporting localized training.  This training was resulting
in a few spots of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates along with areas of
moderate MRMS Flash responses indicative of excessive runoff.

While not particularly widespread, the ongoing flash flood
scenario should continue for at least another 3-6 hours tonight.=20
Objective analyses indicate a mid-level shortwave trough over
western Maryland that should continue to migrate slowly
northeastward through the night, providing ascent for continued,
isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity.  Areas of 2+ inch/hr
rain rates should continue beneath the more persistent activity,
which should exceed FFG thresholds on a localized basis
(especially where heavier antecedent rainfall has occurred over
the last couple days).  Isolated flash flood potential should be
modulated by convective coverage tonight, which is expected to
remain isolated to scattered through 10Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9l65keWcyFUGIFTbYww0FXwhTl04iTvA3nUYHmpc1YA7-M9uhkK7EwBnkL6Q5reXgNxz=
QiQ7j9ss4MOQGLIX1EUsK_g$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41177412 41077341 40567316 38957481 37577669=20
            37607746 38377800 38887747 39557658 40577510=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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