Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 11 2023 03:09:42

AWUS01 KWNH 110309
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1108 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into
western Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110307Z - 110900Z

Summary...A complex of vigorous convection across the northern
Texas Panhandle and vicinity will result in continued areas of 2+
inch/hr rain rates for a few hours tonight.  Flash flood potential
will continue as a result.

Discussion...A mature complex of strong to severe thunderstorms
continued to propagate southward across portions of the
northeastern Texas Panhandle (near Perryton and Spearman).  The
complex was exhibiting a strong right-moving component of motion
while propagating toward an axis of 2000 J/kg SBCAPE centered over
the I-27 corridor near Amarillo.  The motion was enabling multiple
storm mergers to occur, fostering areas of 2+ inch/hr rain rates
that were approaching or even exceeding local FFG (generally in
the 2.5-4 inch/hr range across the discussion area).  Furthermore,
increasing low-level flow was likely continuing to support
re-development along and southwest of the complex, locally
enhancing rain rates.

Models/observations generally support continued cell mergers along
the leading edge of the Perryton/Spearman complex for at least the
next 3-6 hours.  Additional development across the western and
central Texas Panhandle region is also supported by current
observational trends and the HRRR/NAMnest that should also enable
repeat heavy rainfall and prolongued periods of 1+ inch/hr rain
rates in spots through 09Z while favoring continued mergers with
the Perryton/Spearman complex over time.  The result should be a
fairly focused axis of 2-5 inches of additional rainfall amounts
from Perryton/Spearman southward toward I-40 and vicinity through
09Z.  These rainfall totals will challenge FFG thresholds and
increase runoff potential across low-lying and/or sensitive areas.
 Flash flooding is possible in this regime.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5XN4yXEVlbW-wz3ihJPgPk06X51GYrdmMF8TRuUSHfpUr3eqpMIHNEZpf65wF3zaeWJT=
Fna7dHEOdVYgpc4WwxKNGP8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37040135 36909993 36049899 34519908 34080056=20
            34240268 36420282 36950201=20

=3D =3D =3D
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