Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 11 2023 00:51:08

ACUS01 KWNS 110051
SWODY1
SPC AC 110049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue for at least a few more
hours this evening across portions of the southern High Plains.
Large hail and severe wind gusts remain the primary threats.

....Synopsis...
A surface cold front continues to sag southward across the Central
Plains as a mid-level trough approaches the MS Valley tonight.
Scattered strong to occasionally severe storms (with a history of
mainly large hail) continue across southwestern KS into the TX
Panhandle, ahead of the cold front. Here, 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear coincides with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, supporting ongoing
supercells with a continued severe hail threat, though a couple of
severe gusts cannot be ruled out. Please refer to Mesoscale
Discussion 2134 for more details on the short-term severe threat.
These storms should gradually diminish in intensity tonight as
boundary-layer decoupling results in waning buoyancy.

Severe-hail-producing supercells have been gradually weakening
across portions of the central High Plains given diminishing
instability. An instance or two of hail cannot be ruled out should a
storm percolate upward in intensity. Nonetheless, the severe threat
is sparse at best, with Marginal Risk probabilities removed.

...Squitieri.. 09/11/2023

$$

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