Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 10 2023 17:15:37 ACUS02 KWNS 101715 SWODY2 SPC AC 101714 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas Monday afternoon and early evening. ....Eastern NM into West/Central TX... A mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to spread east across the southern Plains vicinity on Monday. This will result in some modest enhancement to midlevel westerly flow. At the surface, a cold front will extend from Lower MI southern KS. The western extent of this front will drop south across the southern High Plains toward western TX during the mid-afternoon into evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop both in post-frontal upslope flow regime across eastern NM and near the cold front across western into central TX. A quasi-triple point will exist across western TX. Low 60s F dewpoints are expected along a north-south oriented dryline and ahead of the southward developing cold front. Upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be maintained in the post-frontal upslope regime across eastern NM. Instability will remain modest across NM behind the front given cooler temperatures and cloud cover. However, a couple of strong storms will be possible during the late afternoon/evening, posing mainly a risk for isolated hail and gusty winds. Further east across western into west-central TX, somewhat better boundary-layer moisture and stronger heating south of the cold front will support MLCAPE to around 2000 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles will foster effective shear magnitudes around 35 kt amid steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support at least a narrow corridor of organized thunderstorm potential from mid-afternoon into early evening. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with this activity. ...Leitman.. 09/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .